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MLB analytics model · v1

JackpotBetz

4 games · 4 lineups posted · 2026 season data
auto-refresh 45 sec
Standings, starters and bullpen splits pulled live · new slate at midnight ET

An information and research tool. It projects each team's run distribution from regressed offense, opponent defense and the probable starter, then models moneyline and run line probabilities off a negative-binomial simulation. Enter published odds to compare the model against the market. No wagers are placed or accepted here.

Information only — JackpotBetz is a statistical research dashboard. It is not a sportsbook, does not take bets, and nothing here is betting advice. 21+ where legal; if gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Slate date
Tracking logBacktestAccountMembership
Overall record
2023–2025 backtest
BacktestYour log
Model ML record
55.8%
2,264 plays · +4.96% ROI
Model RL record
53.5%
2,085 plays · +9.79% ROI
Your logged picks
—
No picks logged yet
Your ROI
—
Log picks to calculate

Q's Picks

0 of 2 today

No picks pinned for 2026-09-30 yet — check back before first pitch.

Today's picks
Moneyline (4)
Run line (4)

Win % is the model's projected chance; Edge is model minus the no-vig market price from the odds you've entered, with EV per $100 staked. Rows highlight green when the bet is +EV. Tier A = strongest model edge, B = solid lean. Weak leans are filtered out.

Underdog radar

model vs. records — no sportsbook required
PHI @ ATL
2:00 PM · park 1.00x
0.0pp
Model
50.0%
Chalk
50.0%
+1.5
50%
  • · Favourite is shorthanded (7 on the IL)
fair -100
CWS @ HOU
5:00 PM · park 1.00x
0.0pp
Model
50.0%
Chalk
50.0%
+1.5
50%
    fair -100
    BOS @ NYY
    8:00 PM · park 1.00x
    0.0pp
    Model
    50.0%
    Chalk
    50.0%
    +1.5
    50%
    • · Favourite is shorthanded (8 on the IL)
    fair -100
    CHC @ SD
    10:00 PM · park 1.00x
    0.0pp
    Model
    50.0%
    Chalk
    50.0%
    +1.5
    50%
      fair -100

      "Chalk" is the price a team's record alone implies — the view a market opener starts from. The radar ranks dogs where the full model (skill-adjusted starters, park run environment, recent form, run variance) disagrees with that record-only view, so live dogs surface even before any sportsbook number is entered.

      Lead game

      Largest model edge on the board
      PHI @ ATL · 2:00 PM · Truist Park · Final
      Lineups in
      Lean ATL 50%
      Philadelphia Phillies88-74
      Cristopher Sánchez (L) · no MLB line
      0.00 RS/G · 0.00 RA/G · 0 diff · 45-36 · L10 4-6
      Proj runs 0.00
      Lineup · posted
      1. 1. Trea Turner · SS
      2. 2. Kyle Schwarber · DH
      3. 3. Bryce Harper · RF
      4. 4. Alec Bohm · 1B
      5. 5. Bryson Stott · 2B
      6. 6. Brandon Marsh · LF
      7. 7. Edmundo Sosa · 3B
      8. 8. Justin Crawford · CF
      9. 9. J.T. Realmuto · C
      Atlanta Braves94-68
      Tyler Mahle (R) · no MLB line
      0.00 RS/G · 0.00 RA/G · 0 diff · 52-29 · L10 5-5
      Proj runs 0.00
      Lineup · posted
      1. 1. Ronald Acuña Jr. · RF
      2. 2. Drake Baldwin · DH
      3. 3. Ozzie Albies · 2B
      4. 4. Matt Olson · 1B
      5. 5. Mauricio Dubón · LF
      6. 6. Austin Riley · 3B
      7. 7. Michael Harris II · CF
      8. 8. Sean Murphy · C
      9. 9. Ha-Seong Kim · SS
      Injured list (7)
      Joe Jiménez (P) · Injured 60-Day · Hurston Waldrep (P) · Injured 60-Day · Martín Pérez (SP) · Injured 15-Day · Spencer Strider (SP) · Injured 60-Day · Reynaldo López (SP) · Injured 15-Day · Joey Wentz (SP) · Injured 60-Day · +1 more
      Moneyline
      Philadelphia Phillies ML
      away
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      Atlanta Braves ML
      home
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      Run line (1.5)
      Philadelphia Phillies +1.5
      underdog run line
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      Atlanta Braves -1.5
      favorite run line
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      Proj total 0.00

      Full slate

      3 more games
      CWS @ HOU · 5:00 PM · Daikin Park · In Progress
      Lineups in
      Lean HOU 50%
      Chicago White Sox84-78
      Sean Burke (R) · no MLB line
      0.00 RS/G · 0.00 RA/G · 0 diff · 36-45 · L10 7-3
      Proj runs 0.00
      Lineup · posted
      1. 1. Sam Antonacci · LF
      2. 2. Kyle Teel · C
      3. 3. Miguel Vargas · 3B
      4. 4. Munetaka Murakami · 1B
      5. 5. Andrew Benintendi · DH
      6. 6. Tristan Peters · CF
      7. 7. Chase Meidroth · 2B
      8. 8. Braden Montgomery · RF
      9. 9. Colson Montgomery · SS
      Injured list (9)
      Jordan Leasure (P) · Injured 60-Day · Mike Vasil (P) · Injured 60-Day · Prelander Berroa (P) · Injured 60-Day · Trevor Richards (P) · Forty Man · Luis Castillo (P) · Injured 15-Day · Tyler Davis (P) · Forty Man · +3 more
      Houston Astros81-81
      Hunter Brown (R) · no MLB line
      0.00 RS/G · 0.00 RA/G · 0 diff · 39-42 · L10 5-5
      Proj runs 0.00
      Lineup · posted
      1. 1. Jeremy Peña · SS
      2. 2. Yordan Alvarez · LF
      3. 3. Isaac Paredes · DH
      4. 4. Jose Altuve · 2B
      5. 5. Yainer Diaz · C
      6. 6. Christian Walker · 1B
      7. 7. Lucas Spence · CF
      8. 8. Cam Smith · RF
      9. 9. Nick Allen · 3B
      Injured list (7)
      Steven Okert (P) · Forty Man · Brice Matthews (2B) · Injured 10-Day · Carlos Correa (3B) · Injured 60-Day · Daulton Varsho (CF) · Injured 10-Day · Cristian Javier (SP) · Injured 15-Day · Mike Burrows (SP) · Injured 60-Day · +1 more
      Moneyline
      Chicago White Sox ML
      away
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      Houston Astros ML
      home
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      Run line (1.5)
      Chicago White Sox +1.5
      underdog run line
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      Houston Astros -1.5
      favorite run line
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      Proj total 0.00
      BOS @ NYY · 8:00 PM · Yankee Stadium · Pre-Game
      Lineups in
      Lean NYY 50%
      Boston Red Sox87-75
      Sonny Gray (R) · no MLB line
      0.00 RS/G · 0.00 RA/G · 0 diff · 46-35 · L10 5-5
      Proj runs 0.00
      Lineup · posted
      1. 1. Jahmai Jones · DH
      2. 2. Adley Rutschman · C
      3. 3. Willson Contreras · 1B
      4. 4. Wilyer Abreu · RF
      5. 5. Ceddanne Rafaela · CF
      6. 6. Caleb Durbin · 3B
      7. 7. Nick Sogard · 2B
      8. 8. Trevor Story · SS
      9. 9. Nate Eaton · LF
      Injured list (3)
      Tyron Guerrero (P) · Injured 15-Day · Johan Oviedo (P) · Injured 60-Day · Roman Anthony (LF) · Forty Man
      New York Yankees93-68
      Max Fried (L) · no MLB line
      0.00 RS/G · 0.00 RA/G · 0 diff · 46-34 · L10 5-5
      Proj runs 0.00
      Lineup · posted
      1. 1. Ben Rice · DH
      2. 2. Cody Bellinger · LF
      3. 3. Luis García Jr. · 1B
      4. 4. Spencer Jones · RF
      5. 5. George Lombard Jr. · SS
      6. 6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. · 2B
      7. 7. Trent Grisham · CF
      8. 8. Austin Wells · C
      9. 9. Ryan McMahon · 3B
      Injured list (8)
      Fernando Cruz (P) · Injured 60-Day · Tim Hill (P) · Forty Man · Clarke Schmidt (P) · Injured 15-Day · Kervin Castro (P) · Injured 60-Day · Michael Fulmer (P) · Forty Man · Brendan Beck (P) · Reassigned to Minors · +2 more
      Moneyline
      Boston Red Sox ML
      away
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      New York Yankees ML
      home
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      Run line (1.5)
      Boston Red Sox +1.5
      underdog run line
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      New York Yankees -1.5
      favorite run line
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      Proj total 0.00
      CHC @ SD · 10:00 PM · Petco Park · Pre-Game
      Lineups in
      Lean SD 50%
      Chicago Cubs89-73
      Kevin Gausman (R) · no MLB line
      0.00 RS/G · 0.00 RA/G · 0 diff · 43-38 · L10 5-5
      Proj runs 0.00
      Lineup · not posted
      Batting order pending — projection uses team rates.
      Injured list (11)
      Caleb Thielbar (P) · Forty Man · Trent Thornton (P) · Forty Man · Phil Maton (P) · Injured 60-Day · Hunter Harvey (P) · Injured 60-Day · Porter Hodge (P) · Injured 60-Day · Riley Martin (P) · Injured 60-Day · +5 more
      San Diego Padres91-71
      Nick Pivetta (R) · no MLB line
      0.00 RS/G · 0.00 RA/G · 0 diff · 51-30 · L10 8-2
      Proj runs 0.00
      Lineup · posted
      1. 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. · RF
      2. 2. Dustin Harris · LF
      3. 3. Manny Machado · 3B
      4. 4. Ty France · 1B
      5. 5. Jackson Merrill · CF
      6. 6. Xander Bogaerts · SS
      7. 7. Ethan Salas · C
      8. 8. Austin Hays · DH
      9. 9. Jake Cronenworth · 2B
      Injured list (9)
      Wandy Peralta (P) · Forty Man · Randy Vásquez (P) · Forty Man · Griffin Canning (P) · Forty Man · Jeremiah Estrada (P) · Forty Man · Sung-Mun Song (2B) · Forty Man · Luis Rengifo (2B) · Injured 60-Day · +3 more
      Moneyline
      Chicago Cubs ML
      away
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      San Diego Padres ML
      home
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      Run line (1.5)
      Chicago Cubs +1.5
      underdog run line
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      San Diego Padres -1.5
      favorite run line
      Win prob
      50.0%
      Fair
      -100
      Book
      Edge
      —
      EV / $100
      —
      Proj total 0.00